Oil, Power and the Price of Silence

Oil, Power and the Price of Silence

OPINION BY: Hem Kumar— September 2026

Washington’s apparent Venezuelan oil gambit is a warning to Guyana: in the new Western Hemisphere energy contest, great powers will defend interests before principles. Guyana must welcome support but never confuse it with a guarantee. Its border, oil wealth and sovereign future cannot be left to the discretion of foreign governments whose alliances may change with the price of crude.

For too long, too many Guyanese have been encouraged to take comfort in the warmth of foreign statements, military exercises, diplomatic visits and the strategic interest now attached to our oil industry. Support matters. Partnerships matter. The international recognition of Guyana’s sovereignty matters. But none of these things removes the hard lesson of history: powerful countries do not conduct foreign policy as charities. They pursue advantage.

Today, Guyana is useful to Washington as an emerging oil producer, a democratic partner, a counterweight to Venezuelan instability and a strategically located state in a hemisphere being contested by the United States, China, Russia and other interests. That usefulness may strengthen Guyana’s hand. But usefulness is not the same thing as inviolability.

The reported U.S.-backed oil arrangement in Venezuela should therefore not be read in Georgetown as a simple victory for regional stability. It may indeed reduce the immediate danger of confrontation by giving Washington a commercial and strategic stake in a more stable Venezuela. A Venezuela tied to U.S. capital, U.S. markets and U.S. security calculations may have more to lose from provoking a crisis with Guyana.

But the same arrangement carries another possibility—one Guyana cannot afford to ignore.

If the United States becomes deeply invested in rehabilitating Venezuelan oil production, restoring Venezuelan export capacity and securing reliable access to Venezuelan crude, then Washington will acquire a powerful reason to keep Caracas cooperative. And when great powers seek cooperation, smaller states are often told to be “flexible,” “pragmatic,” “constructive,” or “mindful of regional peace.”

Those words can sound harmless. In the hands of diplomats, they can become instruments of pressure.

Guyana must never accept a situation in which its legitimate exercise of sovereignty is treated as an obstacle to someone else’s oil bargain. The Essequibo is not a regional irritant to be managed behind closed doors. It is Guyanese territory, administered by Guyana, inhabited by Guyanese, and protected by the law, history and the 1899 Arbitral Award.

There can be no energy bargain in Caracas or Washington that changes that fact.

This is why Guyana must remain alert to the danger of what may be called oil-for-silence diplomacy. Venezuela, facing economic distress and international isolation, has every incentive to use its oil reserves as leverage for political rehabilitation. It may seek investment, sanctions relief, diplomatic acceptance and access to markets. It may also seek to soften international resistance to its aggressive posture on Essequibo.

Guyana must ensure that those two matters are never allowed to merge.

Venezuela may receive investment. Its people may benefit from economic recovery. Its oil industry may be rebuilt. None of that is objectionable in itself. The Venezuelan people should not be condemned to permanent hardship, nor should Guyana desire instability across its western border.

But Venezuela cannot be permitted to monetise its oil while maintaining a claim to two-thirds of Guyana’s territory. It cannot seek the benefits of international partnership while threatening Guyana’s territorial integrity. It cannot demand respect for its sovereignty while refusing to respect ours.

That is the line Georgetown must draw—with clarity, consistency and courage.

The danger for Guyana is not only military. It is diplomatic and commercial. A revived Venezuelan oil sector could give Caracas new revenues, new confidence and new international influence. It could strengthen its ability to fund military activity, maintain naval operations, finance propaganda and sustain the fiction that Essequibo is somehow available for political negotiation.

That fiction must be destroyed every time it appears.

Guyana’s leaders must therefore resist the temptation to outsource national security to any foreign capital. The United States may be a valuable ally. So may Brazil, CARICOM, the Commonwealth, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and other democratic partners. But an ally is not an owner of Guyana’s destiny.

A country that has discovered vast petroleum wealth must understand that it has entered a harder world. Oil brings revenue, but it also attracts appetite. It draws corporations, governments, financiers, military planners and geopolitical competitors. It turns national waters into strategic territory and makes weak institutions a national-security threat.

Guyana’s response cannot be complacency disguised as diplomacy.

The country must strengthen its maritime surveillance, coast-guard capacity, defence readiness and protection of offshore installations. It must deepen relationships across the region and beyond, rather than placing its security future in the hands of one benefactor. It must remain firm before the International Court of Justice and reject every suggestion that the Essequibo controversy should be settled through political compromise.

Most importantly, Guyana must govern its own oil sector with greater transparency, competence and national purpose. A country cannot speak boldly about sovereignty abroad while surrendering too much authority over its national patrimony at home. The defence of Essequibo and the defence of Guyana’s oil wealth are not separate struggles. Both concern whether Guyanese will retain meaningful control over the land, waters and resources that define their future.

That is the real warning contained in Washington’s Venezuelan oil gambit.

The great powers will make their arrangements. Energy companies will pursue their profits. Venezuela will pursue its recovery and its interests. The question is whether Guyana will pursue its own with equal seriousness.

We must welcome friendship, but reject dependency. We must accept support, but refuse subordination. We must seek peace, but never at the price of silence.

No Venezuelan concession, no U.S. equity stake and no barrel of crude must ever become the currency for compromise over Essequibo.