The Architecture Before the Amendment
| 592 GUARDIAN◊ACCOUNTABILITY◊INTEGRITY IN JOURNALISM◊GUYANA |
The Architecture Before the Amendment
PART I OF A TWO-PART SERIES
OPINION BY: Hem Kumar September 2026
What Forty Years of Term-Limit Evasion Teaches Guyana About the Number 44
A Washington advocacy group— Freedom House newest accounting of global democratic backsliding contains a finding that should unsettle anyone tracking Guyana’s National Assembly arithmetic: in at least thirty-six countries, sitting heads of state have altered term-limit law or benefited directly from someone else altering it. Not one of those thirty-six woke up an autocrat. Each became one through a sequence — and the sequence, almost without exception, begins in the legislature, not the constitution.
That distinction is the subject of this piece. Guyana is not among Freedom House’s thirty-six. No government minister has proposed touching Article 90’s two-term presidential limit, and this Board makes no claim that one intends to. What this op-ed does claim, and will document here, is that the precondition for every rewrite Freedom House catalogued — a legislative supermajority assembled by whatever means available — is the same precondition now being assembled in Guyana’s own Assembly, seat by defected seat. Part II of this series will apply that arithmetic directly. Part I exists to prove, with named precedent, that the arithmetic matters at all.
THE SEQUENCE, NOT THE SYMPTOM
It is tempting to read term-limit evasion as a single dramatic act; a referendum, a coup, a strongman’s signature. Freedom House’s cases show the opposite.
The removal of a term limit is almost always the last step in a longer process of legislative capture, and by the time it happens, it is close to a formality.
Cameroon is the cleanest illustration. Paul Biya’s 1996 constitution gave him two terms. He did not challenge that limit directly. Instead, in 2008, his National Assembly; not Biya himself — passed the constitutional amendment that cleared his path to a third term and, eventually, a seventh. The vote came first. The presidency-for-life came after, almost as an afterthought once the votes existed to deliver it. Biya is now ninety-three and has governed Cameroon for over four decades under a system his own legislature, not the streets or the courts, made possible.

El Salvador offers a faster version of the same sequence. President Nayib Bukele did not need a referendum or a coup. He needed a legislature he controlled outright. Once his party held that supermajority, the amendment — extending terms from five to six years and abolishing limits altogether passed as legislative business, not national crisis. The Assembly vote was the event. Everything after was administration.
Togo went further still, and its case is the most structurally relevant one here. Rather than amend a presidential term limit, Togo’s National Assembly rewrote the constitution in 2024 to abolish the presidential system itself, replacing it with a parliamentary one. President Faure Gnassingbé; already twenty years in power, having inherited the office from his father — simply became “President of the Council of Ministers,” an unelected post created by the same legislative majority that had kept his family in power, carrying no term limit at all. No one voted to extend Gnassingbé’s presidency. The legislature that already answered to him voted to make the presidency, and its limits, irrelevant.
WHAT THE CHAMBER REQUIRES
Freedom House’s report is explicit that democratic institutions with genuine checks and balances tend to arrest this sequence before it completes — Senegal’s Constitutional Council blocking Macky Sall’s election delay in 2024, Indonesia’s coalition brokers denying Joko Widodo a third-term run, are cited as the cases where the mechanism was tried and failed. What separated those failures from Cameroon, El Salvador, and Togo’s successes was not public sentiment, which opposed the incumbent in all five cases. It was arithmetic. Sall and Widodo did not command the legislative numbers to force the question past institutions built to stop them. Biya, Bukele, and Gnassingbé did.
This is the mechanism this analyst has been tracking under a different name. In “The Carrot and the Count,” published on these pages, this publication documented a pattern of PPP-C absorption of opposition-aligned figures — James Bond, Shurwayne Holder, Daniel Seeram, Samuel Sandy, Wayne Maison, among others and argued that the pattern functions as coordinated entrenchment strategy rather than isolated career moves. The government’s coalition currently holds 36 of the National Assembly’s 65 seats.
Guyana’s president already operates under a two-term limit written into Article 90 after the 2000 constitutional reforms. That limit stands. This publication is not suggesting otherwise, and readers should treat with skepticism anyone on either side of the aisle — who claims a rule change is imminent. It is not, on present evidence.
What Freedom House’s cross-country record establishes is something more precise and, this writer would argue, more urgent to name early: nowhere in the thirty-six-country dataset did the rule change arrive before the votes to pass it existed. The votes came first, accumulated gradually, often over years, often through mechanisms — defection, patronage, coalition absorption that looked unremarkable in isolation and were reported, where they were reported at all, as routine political horse-trading rather than as the architecture of anything. Cameroon’s amendment took twelve years of legislative consolidation to arrive at its 2008 vote. Togo’s took nearly two decades. The pattern this analyst has documented in Guyana’s Assembly did not begin this year, and the number 44 did not appear from nowhere — it is the same number every one of these cases eventually had to reach, under a different flag, in a different hemisphere, for the same structural reason.
WHY THIS IS PUBLISHED NOW, NOT LATER
There is an argument for waiting — for writing this piece only if and when a constitutional amendment is actually tabled, when the case is undeniable and the reporting uncontestable. This Board rejects that argument on the same grounds Freedom House’s own report implicitly makes: by the time the amendment is tabled in countries where this sequence completes, the votes to pass it are already secured, and the public conversation that might have mattered is already over. Cameroon’s National Assembly vote in 2008 was not a surprise to anyone counting seats in 2006. Togo’s 2024 constitution was not a surprise to anyone who had watched Gnassingbé’s coalition consolidate through the 2010s. The utility of naming a mechanism is entirely in naming it before it completes, not after.
Part II of this series will set Guyana’s arithmetic against this comparative record directly — the 2031 election timeline, the defection pattern by name and date, and what a closed eight-seat gap would actually permit under Guyana’s own constitutional amendment procedure.
This piece has been about establishing that the concern is not speculative alarmism. It is a documented global pattern, with a name, a sequence, and thirty-six governments’ worth of precedent — and Guyana’s National Assembly is currently closer to the threshold that pattern requires than it was a year ago.
— The Board
Source: Cathryn Grothe and Grady Vaughan, “Overstaying Their Welcome: The Problem of Presidential Term Limit Evasion,” Freedom House.


















